Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Sunshine and rain

I like your definitions of "hope" and "fear" - although perhaps they are a little too clean for me as "good outcome" and "bad outcome" should be linked to the person doing the hoping. One persons "good outcome" might be another persons "bad outcome" if you get my drift - they're relative terms.

When does hope become assurance? An assessment of possibility pegged at 100%? Or is a critical mass reached at some lower point which allows the mind to ratchet up to complete assurance even though certainty is not guaranteed?

I think the latter, the human mind will say "Point Y has been reached therefore Z will most likely happen, phew". The human mind is notorious at not considering "the X factor", ie. "what if something goes wrong?" This is how gambling establishments make their billions of dollars in punter revenue, they understand and exploit this aspect of human nature to the fullest. Taking the gambling analogy for this conundrum - in a game of 21 (Blackjack is it called?) at what point will the punter not say "twist"? I guess I would say "twist" at 16 and "stick" at 18, so 17 (for me) is the magic point. 17/21 = 81%. So I guess that at odds greater than 80% certainty I am starting to feel assured.

What's dominant ... hope or fear?

We both agreed, some six years ago now, that fear was the more dominant. I think that's still the case in my mind. What about your good self?

PS. What are your Spock/Bones numbers, both for you and the cast? I haven't forgotten you know !

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