Monday, September 25, 2006

Possibility Assessment

Very interesting question -- "What is the definition of 'Hope'?" As I thought about this, it strikes me that "hope" and "fear" really are two sides of the same coin, and both have to do with expectations about outcomes. An expectation is an assessment of possibilities.
Hope -- the expectation of a good outcome
Fear -- the expectation of a bad outcome
If I assess the possibility of being hit by a falling satellite as essentially zero, I have no real fear of it happening. But the assessment of the possibility of being hit by lightning in the middle of a thunderstorm is much greater than zero, and the fear -- the expectation of a very bad outcome -- is present.

If I had absolutely no expectation of winning the lottery, then I'd have no hope. Even if I buy a lot of tickets, the chances of winning are slight, so my hope of winning is present but low.

So this suggests to me that there are degrees of hope. There are clearly degrees of fear.

When does hope become assurance? An assessment of possibility pegged at 100%? Or is a critical mass reached at some lower point which allows the mind to ratchet up to complete assurance even though certainty is not guaranteed?

What's dominant ... hope or fear?

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